Next year, the Somalis must get it right

This year, Somalia enjoyed success in its transition roadmap. The country chose a Parliament and Speaker who in turn picked an internationally-acclaimed President, Mr Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Shortly thereafter, Mr Mohamud picked a unanimously approved Cabinet that included the country’s first female deputy Prime Minister, Ms Fozia Yusuf Aden.

Many observers would not have imagined the country being capable of achieving any of the above successes in such a short time. Many speculated that the arbitrary date of August 20 set for ending the transitory government’s administration was setting up the country for failure. But Somalia, despite its often violent internecine politics, prevailed.

So what will 2013 hold in store for the world’s most infamous country? Will it be another successful year where the Somali military and Amisom regain more territory from al-Shabaab or will the militant group have another chance of taking over control of strategic locations such as Aden Adde Airport and Kismayu?

On the political front, the government needs to establish itself as credible and efficient. Today, almost everything in the country is run by the private sector.

Next year, if the government can make real gains in creating credible institutions, it will set a precedent for self-sustenance.

This will be the President’s true challenge: harmonising his objectives with the ambitions of his own administration. In other words, he has to ensure that everyone sets aside personal and clan politics and strives towards the same goal — making the Somali state viable.

The military occupation of Somalia in 2013 will most likely remain as messy as it was in 2012. All three of Somalia’s neighbours were involved militarily in the fight against al-Shabaab. It is anticipated that these three (Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya) will still be operating in Somalia in the coming year.

Reconstruction

By next year, Somalia’s military will have made some advances in its training. However, it will be far from ready to pick up where Amisom leaves off. Thus, although the composition of the countries present may change, peacekeepers will be involved in its reconstruction.

Another sensitive diplomatic matter for Somalia is its relationship with Somaliland. With a Deputy Prime Minister from Somaliland, the Somali Government has an opportunity to further its interactions with the breakaway region’s administration.

The two administrations have achieved significant progress this year through dialogue, particularly on matters relating to security. Political dialogue is, however, unlikely in the next 12 months.

Needless to say, the greatest wild card in predictions will be al-Shabaab. Will the violent al Qaeda-linked group regain its momentum of earlier years or will it continue to disintegrate?

The chances of al-Shabaab regaining strength and control will largely depend on the will of the people. Somalis — after seeing the group’s violent internationalist agenda — started to rally against it as early as late 2010.

It is highly improbable that Somalis will again fall for its rhetoric and allow it to regain status in areas it has abandoned or lost to Amisom.

That said, the government needs to focus its attention on disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration of defected al-Shabaab militiamen. It will need to establish security and exert control over these regained territories.

But therein lies the risk. If the government is unable to perform its institutional functions, the country risks falling back into its warlord era, the environment in which violent organisations thrive. This is an outcome the government must avoid at all costs.

Ms Dualeh is an independent consultant who works on the Horn of Africa’s political, socio-economic, and security risk analyses. (rhd@georgetown.ed)

Source: (nation)